Falcons Redskins

Falcons Redskins

Falcons Redskins

NFL Thanksgiving Day 2009 Thursday Night Football Picks

I just finished taping our Football Blitz online, breaking down all the Thanksgiving Day NFL Games.

Yes, I have to endure the annual Detroit Lions Turkey-Day matchup (this year hosting the Green Bay Packers), but there are two other games on the schedule to fill the day up with football action until late into the evening. That said, all three games do have playoff implications, but only the Giants at the Broncos matchup features both teams competing for a playoff spot.

Let’s have a look at the Thursday Night NFL Football:

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

Line: Packers -11

Total: 47.5

Detroit is coming off its second win this season, in a crazy game against the Browns. Matthew Stafford threw the winning touchdown with no time left on the clock and with his left shoulder separated. It was a heroic effort but unfortunately he won’t be around for the annual Lions Thanksgiving game. He is out with the shoulder injury. The Lions could also be without WR Calvin Johnson. Without these two in the lineup there won’t be a lot of celebrating in Michigan.

The Packers have righted the sinking ship winning two straight games beating Dallas and the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers is getting rid of the ball quicker and the Pack have amended the playbook to include more shorter passing routes. Unfortunately for the Packers, they lost two of the top defenders when LB Aaron Kampman and CB Al Harris were both lost for the season with knee injuries. These two injuries could derail the Packers hopes of getting to the post season but they should still have enough to overcome the Lions without Stafford and Johnson.

NFL Trends

- The total has gone over in six of the Packers last nine games.

- Detroit is 3-11 against the spread in their last 14 home games

Packers: 6-4 SU, 5-4-1 ATS

Lions: 2-8 SU, 2-7-1 ATS

NFL Picks: We’re staying away from the side and total on this one. We won’t lay the big points on the Packers and certainly can’t put our money on the Lions.

Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys

Line: Cowboys – 14

Total: Over 40

The Raiders are coming off their biggest win of the year when they battled back to put up ten points in the last minute to beat the Bengals. Bruce Gradkowski started in place of the embattled JaMarcus Russell and made just enough plays to win. The strength of the Raiders is their defense and they played their best game of the year against Cincy.

Meanwhile, Dallas barely beat the Redskins 7-6 last week in a game that they were outplayed, but did get the win over a very mediocre (read: bad) team. Tony Romo was harassed all day long and the Redskins secondary contained the Cowboy receivers all day, side from that critical final drive. In this matchup, the Cowboy running game should be enough to provide them with some balance on offense, as the Raiders will be forced to bring eight men up to support stopping the run, which should allow the passing game to produce more plays than last week. Oakland struggles stopping the run (giving up 157 yards per game) and that will be their undoing this week as early success will allow for the passing game to open up as well.

We also think the Raiders will find ways to score some points, not enough for a win, but they’ll push the Cowboys.

NFL Trends

- The total has gone under in six of the Raiders' last nine games.

- Dallas is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 home games

Raiders: 3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS

Cowboys SU, 5-5 ATS

NFL Picks: We lean to the underdog getting 14 points, but i gave out a play on the “Over” 40 in this one.

Check ESPN for updated injury reports, particularly for Richard Seymour

New York Giants at Denver Broncos

Line: Broncos – 7

Total: Over 42

The Giants finally stopped their four game slide with an overtime win against the Falcons in New York last Sunday. Eli Manning played a great game tossing for three scores and making a number of difficult throws. The Giants still can’t get their running game going and now could be without Ahmed Bradshaw who injured his ankle last week. Brandon Jacobs is not putting up the numbers that he did last year and he missed all of the fourth quarter and overtime against the Falcons with a leg injury but will go this week. The lack of running game is forcing Manning to put the team on his shoulders. LB Antonio Pierce is the heart, soul and brains of the defense and he is out with a back problem. The Giants still can’t stop the pass and Denver will look to get WR Brandon Marshall in the game early.

Denver will be looking to stop their own four-game slide. The Broncos have fallen out of first place and could be in a big free fall if they don’t win this game. Kyle Orton will play with his injured ankle because the NFL quarterback gene didn’t get passed down to Chris Simms. The Broncos have a huge advantage of playing at home on a short week in the mile-high air of Denver. New York is beat up and traveling across the country with only three days to prepare, so we will not be laying up to a TD with this team.

NFL Picks: Looking at this one, we have a small lean to the home team getting the seven points.

NFL Trends

- The total has gone under in eight of Denver's last ten games.
- The NY Giants are 17-4 against the spread in their last 21 road games

Giants: 6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS

Broncos: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS

Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy all the football action, the food, and family fun.

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